Run-first Bucs bring the NFL's top ground game to Chicago

Tampa Bay arrives at Soldier Field as the league's most unusual hot streak. After an 0-4 start, the Buccaneers have won three of four, most recently a 16-0 shutout of Atlanta on 1 November in which they did not complete a single pass and ran for a franchise-record 324 yards.

Chicago is a tougher test. The Bears are 6-2 and chasing a fourth straight win, with Caleb Williams completing 73.8% of his passes, with four touchdowns and no interceptions, over the three-game run. D'Andre Swift leads the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns, and the Bears rank third in total offense.

This game puts the league's two best rushing attacks against each other: Tampa Bay first at 168.6 yards a game, Chicago second at 150.8. Tampa Bay's passing game is the weak spot, last in the league at 131.4 yards a game, and Baker Mayfield has only recently returned from a thumb injury on his throwing hand that cost him three starts. Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby is out with a knee injury.

The divisions frame it oddly. The NFC North is the only division with all four teams above .500, so Chicago is only second at 6-2, while the NFC South is the only one with all four below .500, leaving 3-5 Tampa Bay second in theirs. The market has Chicago as a 72% favorite. Can a team that barely throws the ball win at Soldier Field?