A point would send France through after Zidane's first defeat

France go into their final Nations League group game against Türkiye in Bordeaux knowing a draw is enough to reach the quarter-finals. Zinedine Zidane's side arrive off their first defeat under him, a 3-1 loss at San Siro on 12 November that gave Italy their first home win over France since 1962.

That result left Italy and France level on 10 points in Group A1, Italy ahead on head-to-head, with Belgium a point behind on nine. Belgium host Italy in the other game. France finish top if they win and Italy do not. The danger is narrow but real: if France lose and Belgium beat Italy, France drop to third and go out.

France were without Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé in Milan. Zidane is hoping to have his captain back, but his return is not confirmed. Mbappé scored the only goal when France won the reverse fixture 1-0 in Kocaeli on 25 September, Zidane's first match in charge.

Türkiye have lost all five group games and are already certain to finish fourth. Sergen Yalçın, who replaced Vincenzo Montella in October, began with a 2-1 home defeat to Belgium, though Arda Güler scored. Their result still matters: the two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams across League A go straight down to League B, while the other two get a play-off.

The market prices a France win at 82%. With Mbappé's fitness unconfirmed and a draw enough to send them through, does that number look right?